on the healthcare reform debate...

is sharing some interesting analysis by one of the world's leading political scientists, Ian Bremmer:

"by now, obama staffers in the white house readily admit that they misjudged how badly the infighting--within their own party--could get by allowing congress to take the lead in developing a health care plan. obama took the reins back last week. the white house plan for the speech was to visibly back off some of the most progressive (and expensive) parts of the health care plan, while reaching out to moderate republicans (particularly senator john mccain), so it looked like obama was offering a potentially compromise bipartisan package. at which point, the white house tacks to the underlying strategy--rally the democratic leadership and do whatever is possible to get a bill through.

the republicans will surely be unhappy with that result. but securing support for a bipartisan proposal was a dead letter, given the already strident republican opposition to obama-led legislation in general, to say nothing of the nature of the healthcare debate over the past two months. instead, president obama upset a few progressive democrats, accepts a weakened bill with his name on it...and gets it through congress by the end of the year. if you accept metrics of success for obama that the administration sets for itself, it looks like a big win. in short, obama's first year goes from slipping into serious trouble to creating a bounce for the president's popularity"